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Rolla McCrady has been at previous sse

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meetings michael act atkinson is his

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main on-site technical assistance at the

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heart math Institute the the arabic

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physician whose name I will not attempt

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to pronounce ah was their co-worker on

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data gathering for this study and I was

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brought into it as a hired consultant to

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do some analyses for them and I end up

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being the presenter because I'm the one

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who's an SSC member so one of the things

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that the hard math institute among

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others has has demonstrated is that the

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heart is actually the most powerful

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source of electromagnetic signals in the

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body and additional findings from

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previous heart math Institute research

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are that the the electromagnetic fields

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at least it's generally presumed that

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it's the electromagnetic fields produced

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by the heart have measurable effects on

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other organisms and people near a given

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person ah now this this raises the

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question of what about other

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electromagnetic magnetic fields the sort

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of Art Deco image here is showing some

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of the frequencies or rather wavelengths

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involved in the Schumann resonances

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which are the natural resonances of the

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earth as a whole for electromagnetic

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radiation propagating between the

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surface and the ionosphere those are by

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no means the only electromagnetic

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effects associated with the Earth's

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environment and some of them have been

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shown to have effects on human

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physiology and psychology in studies

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that I'm not going to cite here because

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there's a lot of them so since the heart

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both generates in response to electro

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magnetic signals it seems natural to

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look at heart function as an indicator

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of the body's reaction to external

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fields and the aspect that the heart

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math people thought was best suited for

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this kind of analysis was heart rate

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variability which Julie mentioned in her

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talk so the experimental program here

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HRV data was collected from 16

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volunteers in Saudi Arabia over a

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six-month period the participants wore

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monitors for extended periods not all

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the time usually not 24/7 but for

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extended slices out of this six-month

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period 10 different HRV measures were

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calculated from the raw heartbeat data

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on an hourly basis and during this same

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period 12 measurements of geomagnetic or

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cosmic variables were recorded on an

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hourly basis

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so the 10 HRV measures don't worry there

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will not be a quiz on this that this is

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just so that you can get a a glance at

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the names of what they are and we had 12

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environment variables including several

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G several standard published geomagnetic

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indices PC n stands for the polar cap

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North index a measure of magnetic flux

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literally on the north polar cap the

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Schumann resonance appears again and

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there were four sets of GCI magnetometer

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readings then there are cosmological

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parameters not directly connected to

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geomagnetism there's the solar wind

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speed the sunspot number the F 10.7

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index is a measure of how much radio

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emission the Sun is putting out at a

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frequent at by the wavelength of ten

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point seven centimeters and the cosmic

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ray incidence counts

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so we've just designed a tremendously

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complicated data structure we've got ten

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a

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the effect of multiple contributing

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variables simultaneously and sort them

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out from each other and I have a

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detailed explanation of how that works

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which I will reserve for an appendix if

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we have the time hello now there we go

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so just as a quick overview from the raw

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data we first remove circadian

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variations and then for each HR v

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measure for each participant at each

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time offset we do a multivariate

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regression analysis on all 12

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environment variables we calculate the

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weighted mean across participants to get

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the population averages then we apply a

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bonferroni correction for the number of

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lags and take the moat and apply that to

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the

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significance bonferroni correction is

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basically a technique you apply to

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compensate for the inherent bias of I've

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got a bunch of tests and I'm taking the

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one that looks best how much do I need

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to dilute my p-value to reflect the

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effect of cherry-picking the best result

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and here's the summary of the overall

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results 12:12 environment variables vs.

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10 HRV measures and the legend of

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rainbow colors running around the side

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this violet shade at the top corresponds

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to a p-value of 10 to the minus 15 power

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or less in fact this 1 square here

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showing up in deep violet sorry I'm

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ignoring one side of the room actually

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has a p-value of 1.6 times ten to the

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minus sixteen power that's after

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correcting for the fact that it's the

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best lag out of 81 lags and of course

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we've got 120 separate tests here so we

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can do a separate bonferroni correction

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for that and that dilutes our p-value

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all the way to 1.9 times 10 to the minus

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14th power how disappointing and as you

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can see there are quite a few other

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significant results in fact and I

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apologize for the fine print of these

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120 tests 74% of them are significant at

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0.05 level or better at basically

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anything that's not black if this were a

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chance phenomenon only about 5% of that

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hundred-and-twenty or in other words

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about 6 of those squares should be

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um looking at that things in a little

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more detail but still the same overview

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all ten HRV measures are reacting to the

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Schumann resonance that's a brief the

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buttons are too close to each other on

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this control SFI here is the mnemonic

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for Schumann fundamental integral it's

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the integrated strength of the lowest

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Schumann resonance frequency and every

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measure is reacting to it ah nine out of

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ten are reacting to the ten point seven

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centimeter solar emissions eight out of

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ten are reacting to cosmic-ray counts

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only seven of the ten react to

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significantly to the solar wind speed

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but look at this stretch of green we've

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got five out of the ten are reacting

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with P less than ten to the minus fifth

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to the solar wind on the other hand not

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much is reacting to the polar cap North

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flux and there are a couple of other

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environmental measures that don't seem

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to be having much impact as as for the

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measures there are several measures that

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are reacting to ten out of twelve

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environment measure variables and there

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are other HRV measures that show very

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few significant reactions now how

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significant is significant I've been

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talking about statistical significance

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which just means we can assert with

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confidence that something is happening

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that is not a statistical fluke ah the

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everyday sense of significance on the

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other hand means that something is big

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enough to matter so just to get an idea

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of the range here the most statistically

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significant response is the reaction of

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high frequency HRV spectral power to the

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Schumann resonance intensity multiplying

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the regression coefficient by the full

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range of variation in the Schumann

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resonance produces 7.8 percent

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of the full range of variation in HRV so

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in in terms of the pragmatic effect on

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physiology we're talking about between

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five and ten percent of the natural

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range of variation now this overall

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evaluation ignores most of the models at

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different time delays as I said we're

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looking at the most significant one and

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applying a bonferroni correction so that

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we don't fool ourselves into making a

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type 1 error however there's a great

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deal more information in those time

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sequences and with with numbers like 10

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to the minus 16th and 10 to the minus

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14th flying around we can afford to look

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at a few more variables without too much

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risk of fooling ourselves into over

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interpreting a statistical fluke

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so here's five of the variables we

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picked five partly for visibility partly

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because the other five were strongly

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correlating with them for the strongest

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response the Schumann resonance and you

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can see that all of these variables are

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reacting in a similar way there's a sort

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of quasi periodic behavior here which is

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not at 24 hour intervals so it's not a

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circadian influence that somehow escaped

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our removal of circadian effects we

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don't know what it is it's its

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periodicity is about 18 to 20 hours we

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we're not aware of anything particularly

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significant that oscillates on that time

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scale another interesting feature of

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that graph is that nothing is reacting

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in real time you look at HRV at the same

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time as a particular burst of activity

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in the Schumann resonance no reaction

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the reaction is showing up most strongly

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30 hours later then there's also

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this this thing down here which is a

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puzzle it looks like there's an

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anticipatory response about 34 hours

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ahead of time here's the variable that

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had multiple things reacting to it very

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significantly the solar wind here we

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don't see quasi-periodic structure we've

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just got one big peak which again is

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showing up in multiple variables that is

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10 hours after the stimulus now an

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interesting feature about this is that

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the solar wind doesn't reach Earth's

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surface

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supposedly it affects earth because it

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changes the shape of the magnetosphere

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and so distorts the Earth's magnetic

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field

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but the HRV response to the solar wind

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is stronger than the response to most of

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the geomagnetic indices how is how is

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that happening if the solar wind should

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be mediating its effect through the

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Earth's magnetic field again we we don't

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know as with the previous one there's

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nothing much visible in in real time at

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a time lag of 0 and there is once again

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not as strong but a rather puzzling hint

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of an anticipatory reaction about 34

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hours

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brought prior to the stimulus and I just

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sorry 30 hours on this one I went the

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wrong way getting to my discussion so

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conclusions

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the search for HRV responses to

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geomagnetic and cosmic variables returns

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a strong yes despite the number of

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individual tests made the strongest

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physiological responses are delayed by

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10 to 30 hours depending on what

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variable we're looking at some of the

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strongest responses to cosmic variables

260
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do not seem to be mediated by

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the geomagnetic field and these results

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provide some indications of which

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environmental variables and which HRV

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measures will be most useful to track in

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speaking of future studies things that

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could bear more invit investigation we

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ignored individual variations here for

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the sake of simplicity what could we

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learn by actually looking at them do

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individual patterns of HRV response

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correlate usefully with a person's

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physical condition or health needs will

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a larger study population show the same

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or similar effects we've got a

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tremendous number of data points but one

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weakness of this study is that we only

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have 16 volunteers and they're all from

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the same culture same geographical

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region they could very easily be a

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biased sample compared to the general

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human population the anticipatory

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reactions are a puzzle we still don't

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know how we're supposed to interpret

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them and then there's the question I

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already mentioned that the the solar

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wind doesn't seem to be working through

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the magnetospheric effects so how does

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it have its effect I first want to

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suggest we talk about heart rate

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variability and I'm going to argue that

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you're really not affecting the heart

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and you're affecting the autonomic

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nervous system because I don't think

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you're actually capturing the heart beat

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like with pacemakers so you're dealing

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with autonomic nervous system so what

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you deal with that you even got to talk

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about seat sleep you got to talk about

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REM you got to talk about you know diet

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now I don't know I was involved in a

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study with Ramadan with people in Saudi

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Arabia I don't know if that was going

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when you did your study but there's all

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these other factors that are really

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important it's good data and exciting

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but you know we got to talk about the

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nervous system which we're talking about

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the brain really and the autonomic

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nervous system not stimulating the heart

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those are all very good points and I

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suspect that this has a lot to do with

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why the effects we're seeing only

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explain a small portion of the natural

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variability that that natural variation

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comes from somewhere and all of the

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factors that you listed are relevant to

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it yes the the the autonomic nervous

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system is tremendously important to

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heart function and does regulate it in a

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healthy individual but the the the heart

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rate variability was the physiological

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measure that the the heart math people

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chose to work with for a a variety of

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reasons including the ones that I

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mentioned early on York I was I think

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this is a terrific presentation and I

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must admit that it provides very sort of

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powerful evidence of sort of a

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relationship of individual physiological

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variables to the cosmic environment well

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the obvious question to me is well if

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this is what the Sun can do to people do

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the planets also have an effect because

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one thinks about the Mars effect for

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instance as an example and I must admit

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that when that go cleanse stuff on the

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Mars effect came out most of us were

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saying well how could that how could

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that be okay but everybody was thinking

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about gravitational pull and so forth

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nobody thought about these other

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variables so the obvious question again

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in my mind is do the planets have any of

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and might that influence things like the

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Mars effect I assume you know what that

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is

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yes I'm familiar with the Gokul on Mars

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effect and the thing with that is that

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it is a a purely empirical statistical

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correlation that was found that has no

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no underlying mechanism that anybody has

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been able to suggest exactly these

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environmental variables that I mentioned

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are all literally measurable features of

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the physical environment they are things

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that can be physically detected at

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either at Earth's surface or in the

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immediate vicinity with instruments

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which I'm sorry yes the planets are out

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there they have they have gravitational

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effects they have electromagnetic

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effects those are all many orders of

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magnitude smaller we assume what what

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yeah the things we're looking at okay

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okay fascinating so a speculative

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comment on the anticipatory effect and

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perhaps the 18 hour cycle that you see

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several years ago Dick Schaap gave an

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absolutely mind-blowing talk in which he

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showed a correlation between various

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human events and solar wind activity

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just at the Sun in other words activity

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solar wind as it was leaving the Sun not

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as it was arriving on earth so as if we

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were reacting to something that was

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happening out there now and there hasn't

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been any follow up on this it was it was

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just a series of correlations that he

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did but I wonder whether some of these

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time effects that you're seeing may be

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because the response is not due to

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what's hitting the earth but it's due to

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the source of perhaps the solar winds

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for example

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well that is a very interesting

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speculation and I have to admit that the

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solar wind correlation in particular

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looks an awful lot like the proverbial

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spooky action at a distance because it

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doesn't look like it's being mediated by

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anything we know about so if if there's

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a reaction to stuff that's happening all

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the way out there at the surface of the

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Sun yes that that would show up as

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anticipatory compared to the

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measurements of the solar wind reaching

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Earth's magnetosphere thank you very